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Hartnett believes that inflation and interest rate shocks, which have caused volatility in the markets, are likely to dissipate in 2023. This could lead to a rebound in bonds during the first half of 2023 and stocks during the second half. Additionally, he predicts that returns should be positive overall in 2023.
However, there is a warning from Hartnett of a "no landing" scenario in the first half of 2023. This means that economic growth will remain robust and central banks will remain accommodative, which could lead to a hard landing outcome in the latter part of 2023. In this scenario, the S&P 500 could potentially drop by 7% by early March.
Reports also indicate that the Fed's campaign to crush inflation is still unaccomplished. This could lead to further market volatility in 2023.
What does this mean for investors?
According to Hartnett, it's important for investors to remain cautious and prepared for potential market volatility in 2023. Diversification and a long-term investment strategy could help investors weather any potential storms.
However, with the positive outlook for the markets overall, there may also be opportunities for investors to capitalize on growth and returns in 2023. It's important for investors to stay informed and monitor the markets closely in order to make the most of these opportunities.
Overall, as we head into 2023, it's important for investors to be mindful of potential risks while remaining optimistic about the potential for growth and returns in the global markets.
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